SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT AS A BASIS FOR THE DECISION. MAKING IN SELECTION OF ENERGY SYSTEM

F. BEGIC(1), N. H. AFGAN<2)

® J. P.Elektroprivreda Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina <2> Institute Superior Tecnico, Lisbon, Portugal

In this paper the multicriteria sustainability assessment of various options of the energy power system of the JP Elektroprivreda of Bosnia and Herzegovina is performed. The rehabilitation of a 110 MW Thermal Power Unit, is considered in comparison with some other comparable options, such as Thermal power unit with coal fuelled boiler with combustion in fluidized bed, Combined cycle gas turbine plants, Hydro Power Plant, Power plants based on solar energy (PV systems), Wind turbines and Bio-mass power plants. Used methodology is based on a system of stochastic models of uncertainty, enabling to realize the assessment from various supporting systems, as well as enabling to obtain various normalization indexes by using Non-numeric (ordinal), Non-exact (interval) and Non-complete information (NNN-information) obtained from sources of various reliability and probability. Trough the analysis of multicriteria assessment of various options the decision-makers are offered to evaluate different options and make selection of the optimal option which meet the muticriteria evaluation.

1. Introduction

Most of decision models used in evaluation of complex systems today are based on single criteria analysis. However, in our modem age, decision-making based of single criteria analysis becomes unacceptable, if we set priorities that include costs, requirements, possibilities and risks. It is often necessary to consider several aspects at the same time.

Energy power system is a complex system which evaluation depends on a number of economic, environmental, social and technological parameters. One of the perspective methods for evaluation of energy system quality is multicriteria sustainability assessment based on the analysis and synthesis of indicators expressing different aspects of the system. Application of this method in the cases of information deficiency (ASPID methodology) enables evaluation of various energy systems.

In this work, multicriteria sustainability assessment of energy systems of various sources is applied to the Energy Power System of Bosnia and Herzegovine in order to investigate this complex system.

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