Wind forecast accuracy

Improved wind forecasting techniques also mitigate the difficulty of incorporating wind into the power system (see Chapter 9). Several studies provided estimates of the benefits of perfect wind forecast relative to state-of-the-art wind forecast and found significant operational improvements with improved forecasting (EnerNex Corporation, 2011; GE Energy, 2005a, 2010). EWITS determined that perfect, day – ahead wind forecast would reduce the cost of wind generation by between $2.26 and $2.84/MWh. WWSIS concluded that perfect wind forecast would decrease WECC operating cost by $1 to 2/MWh of wind energy relative to current state-of-the-art forecasts and prevent the need for any wind curtailment (GE Energy, 2010). The NYSERDA study found perfect wind forecasts to be worth approximately $1.50 per MWh of wind generation (GE Energy, 2005a). Underforecasting wind does not pose significant challenges to system stability, as it can be managed by curtail­ing wind if necessary, but it does reduce the economic competitiveness of wind production (GE Energy, 2008).

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