Regional production and shipments by technology

This section provides an analysis of shipment data by technology (single­crystalline, polycrystalline (multi), ribbon crystalline and thin films (a-Si, CdTe, CIS/CIGS)). Crystalline (c-Si) technology has consistently held the major share of global shipments. The primary reason for c-Si market dominance is that it is higher in efficiency than are commercially available thin-film technologies. Lower in efficiency, thin-film technologies must compensate for the area penalty with a lower price point. Area penalty means that more area (roof or land) is needed along with more balance of systems (hardware). Technologies that are significantly lower in efficiency have traditionally struggled to compete in the already competitively burdened PV industry. During the most recent (2004—2007) polysilicon shortage, many companies entered with thin-film strategies based solely on the assumption that thin films were, or would be, less expensive to man­ufacturer and would gain share on that basis. As the price of crystalline tech­nologies began to decrease in 2009, thin-film technology companies struggled to compete.

Though thin-film technologies have never held the leading share of global PV technology shipments throughout the PV industry’s terrestrial history, this does not mean that thin films have never held a significant share relative, of course, to the market conditions of the year. Table 4.6 presents market shares for the general thin-film and crystalline technology categories from 1980 to 2011. In 1984, the consumer indoor application, primarily cal­culators and watches, began increasing significantly with amorphous silicon (a-Si), the primary technology used in this application. In 1984, a-Si had a 20% share of a 17.2 MWp global market for all technologies. Thin film (a-Si) share of global shipments peaked in 1988 at 32% (global shipments of

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

10-Year

Region

(MWp)

(MWp)

(MWp)

(MWp)

(MWp)

(MWp)

(MWp)

(MWp)

(MWp)

(MWp)

(MWp)

CAGR (%)

United

96.7

107.8

91.5

140.6

133.6

136.6

237.3

387.9

409.0

1068.1

781.2

23

States

Japan

145.0

233.8

350.6

547.0

714.0

882.6

901.9

1228.0

1255.5

2019.5

2844.5

35

Europe

85.4

173.4

173.1

272.9

406.9

611.3

992.4

1700.0

1460.3

2568.1

1618.9

34

ROW

21.0

27.9

45.3

48.2

68.6

107.8

160.5

421.2

1113.8

2428.1

3421.8

66

Taiwan

2.8

10.0

13.7

31.5

46.0

94.3

288.4

605.9

1146.8

2798.1

4006.1

107

China

2.0

2.0

1.0

9.5

34.6

152.0

492.5

1108.8

2527.9

6520.4

10906.8

136

Total

352.9

554.9

675.3

1049.8

1407.7

1984.6

3073.0

5491.8

7913.3

17402.3

23579.3

52

Shipments

‘Columns and rows may not add due to rounding.

Table 4.6 Technology market shares, 1980-

-2011a

Thin film %

Crystalline %

Year

Total market

share of total

share of total

1980

3.3

0

100

1981

4.0

0

100

1982

7.7

10

90

1983

14.5

11

89

1984

17.2

20

80

1985

18.7

23

77

1986

21.0

29

71

1987

25.0

29

71

1988

31.5

32

68

1989

37.9

27

73

1990

42.7

26

74

1991

48.2

21

79

1992

54.1

19

81

1993

55.7

15

85

1994

61.8

16

84

1995

72.3

13

87

1996

83.8

15

85

1997

114.1

13

87

1998

134.8

12

88

1999

175.5

11

89

2000

252.0

10

90

2001

352.9

9

91

2002

504.9

6

94

2003

675.3

5

95

2004

1049.7

5

95

2005

1407.7

6

94

2006

1984.6

7

93

Continued

Подпись: Table 4.6 Technology market shares, 1980-2011—cont'd Year Total market Thin film % share of total Crystalline % share of total 2007 3073.0 11 89 2008 5491.8 14 86 2009 7913.3 17 83 2010 17402.3 13 87 2011 23579.3 14 86 aColumns and rows may not add due to rounding.
100

Подпись:Подпись: о^скчск^скЪо^хо$эо<р</' 0^о$с&с^сО'сФо^с&>с>Ро r^ rO- rv> г^ к0> (Л ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Подпись: Cz Px Si Ribbon Si a-SI CdTe CIGSПодпись:image1190

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

31.5 MWp). This was also the point at which the consumer indoor appli­cation became saturated and began declining. In 2003 and 2004, thin films had a 5% share of global shipments, with a-Si dominating. In 2005, Cadmium telluride began to gain market traction, and in 2009, thin films held a 17% share of global shipments.

Figure 4.3 depicts each technology’s contribution to global shipments from 1980 to 2011. In Fig. 4.3, the dominance of crystalline technologies over time is clear, along with the strong market position of a-Si during the mid-1980s.

100

Подпись:Подпись: 5N ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ .kПодпись:image1290

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Figure 4.4 isolates the contribution of thin-film technologies from 1982 to 2011 from the total market for PV technologies to illustrate the contri­bution of specific thin-film technologies over time. The data in Fig. 4.4 should not be taken as representative ofthe total global market for PV tech­nologies. Figure 4.4 clearly shows the dominance of a-Si in the 1980s through mid-2000s, along with the recent increase in share for CdTe and CIGS/CIS.

Over time, there has been a shift in regional technology contribution, that is, the United States once dominated crystalline technology shipments, followed by dominating shipments of CdTe. Beginning in the late 2000s, China and Taiwan began dominating shipments of crystalline tech­nology, while the ROW (Malaysia) now dominates shipments of CdTe. These regional shifts have primarily been due to lower cost areas to manu­facture technology and not due to locating manufacturing near the market. Incentive-driven markets for renewables are inherently volatile, making it risky to locate near a market that is likely to disappear. Figure 4.5 presents the regional contribution to technology shipments for 2009, 2010, and 2011.

Table 4.7 provides detail about technology shipments, share of total shipments, and the annual and compound annual growth for specific tech­nologies from 2003 to 2011.

Total shipments 2009 7.9 GWp

 

image019

Cz

 

Px Si

 

Ribbon

 

a-Si

 

CdTe

 

Total shipments 2010 17.4GWp

 

Cz

 

Px Si

 

Ribbon

 

a-Si

 

CdTe

 

Total shipments 2011 23.6GWp

 

Cz

 

Px Si

 

Ribbon

 

a-Si

 

CdTe CIGS/CIS

 

image020

image13image14image15

CAGR CAGR

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 03-11 06-11

Technology (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (%) (%)

Polycrystalline

373.3

626.8

855.2 1092.4 1626.9 2666.1 3641.3

8297.1

11317.4

53

60

Poly % total

55

60

61

55

53

49

46

48

48

Px change %

52

68

36

28

49

64

37

128

36

Monocrystalline

240.1

328.6

433.9

702.2 1020.6 1912.1 2786.4

6518.6

8896.1

57

66

Cz % total

36

31

31

35

33

35

35

37

38

Cz change %

13

37

32

62

45

87

46

134

36

Ribbon silicon

29.2

42.0

34.0

44.0

96.2

158.9

144.0

274.0

120.0

19

22

Ribbon % total

4

4

2

2

3

3

2

2

1

Ribbon change %

106

44

-19

29

119

65

-9

90

– 56

Amorphous silicon

28.9

42.9

60.2

84.6

123.7

271.0

218.3

597.0

625.0

47

49

a-Si % total

4

4

4

4

4

5

3

3

3

a-SI change %

1

48

40

41

46

119

-19

173

5

Cadmium telluride

2.0

6.0

20.0

59.0

188.5

434.7 1057.3

1415.6

1932.8 136

101

CdTe % total 0

1 1 3

6

8

13

8

8

CdTe change % 186

200 233 195

219

131

143

34

37

Continued

CAGR CAGR

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

03-11

06-11

Technology

(MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp) (MWp)

(MWp)

(%)

(%)

Copper indium gallium diselenide/

1.8

3.4

4.4

2.4

17.1

49.0

66.0

300.0

688.0 110

210

copper indium diselenide

CIGS/CIS % total

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

2

3

CIGS/CIS change %

– 25

147

147

147

147

147

147

354

129

Total crystalline

642.6

997.4 1323.1

1838.6 2743.7 4737.1 6571.6 15089.7 20333.5

54

62

Crystalline % total

95

95

94

93

89

86

83

87

86

Crystalline change %

36

55

33

39

49

73

39

130

35

Total thin films

32.7

52.3

84.6

146.0

329.3

754.7 1341.7

2312.6

3245.8

78

86

Thin film % total

5

5

6

7

11

14

17

13

14

Thin-film change %

3

60

62

73

126

129

78

72

40

Total shipments

675.3

1049.7 1407.7 1984.6 3073.0 5491.8 7913.3 17402.3 23579.3

56

64

aColumns and rows may not add due to rounding.