Происшествия и новости Перми

все новости

Что ни день – то сюрприз. То, ну чего никак не ждешь. Временами, жизнь приносит на ладонях подарки. Случается, отбирает последнее. Вокруг нас столько всего интересного, уникального, неизведанного. И лишь у того, у кого по жизни наблюдается правило: “Жизнь – сплошное открытие” будет возможность достичь успеха. А для этого, надо каждый день узнавать что-то новое, ориентироваться в тенденциях и трендах. Одним из способов держаться на плаву – будет чтение новостей. В нашем регионе они бывают крайне разными, и они заслуживают на ваше внимание...

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Tеплый пол Теплолюкс

Tеплый пол

Наверняка, словосочетание «теплый пол» знает каждый человек. Однако не все знают о том, какие существуют производители теплых полов. Сегодня мы хотим поговорить о системе Теплолюкс, которой отдают предпочтение многие покупатели. Что же собой представляет данная система? Какие у нее положительные стороны? Как правильно произвести монтажную работу собственноручно? На эти и на другие вопросы мы попробуем найти ответы. Теплый пол Теплолюкс...

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Some observers like to see Easter Island as a metaphor for the modern world. However, it is important to be aware of the differences. The first point, as has been emphasized already, is that societies of the Easter Island type do not necessarily have a dramatic decline. In the case of Easter Island, the civilization was ‘‘unlucky’’ to be on an island where the main resource was very slow growing. If the resource had been faster growing, then the boom – and-bust cycle probably would have been avoided, as it was in most of Polynesia. Therefore, even if Earth as a whole could be viewed as Easter Island writ large, there would no presumption about any inevitability of the imminent decline and fall of modern civilization.

On the other hand, Easter Island should not be viewed as an isola...

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It is useful to consider the history of Easter Island after the 18th century. The story is a very sad one— much worse than the endogenous boom-and-bust cycle that had already occurred on Easter Island. From the time of James Cook in the late 18th century through the mid-19th century, conditions on Easter Island gradually improved and the population increased gradually. Population was reliably esti­mated at something exceeding 3000 in 1862. In 1862 and 1863, slave traders from the Spanish community in Peru invaded the island and took about one-third of the islanders as slaves. Most of these slaves died of smallpox and other infectious diseases within a few years. A few returned to Easter Island, inadvertently causing a smallpox epidemic that killed most of the remaining Islanders.

By 187...

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A presumption underlying the analysis here is that property rights were incomplete, perhaps not to the point of full open access, but at least to the point where it was hard to prevent increased harvesting as the population increased. Specifically, in Eq. (1) harvesting is assumed to be increasing with popula­tion size for any given stock. This need not be the case if property rights are complete, because an efficient owner or manager of the resource would restrict access beyond some optimal point.

It is unlikely that Easter Island was characterized by complete open access, but it is very likely that property rights were incomplete in the sense that different competing harvesters probably had access to some common part of the forest...

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Geothermal power stations have their own unique developmental, operational, technical, and environ­mental problems. Many geothermal resources occur in or near national parks or remote uninhabitable locations because they are normally associated with volcanoes and have beautiful surface manifestations and so become public reserves and tourism hot spots. Most of these geothermal resources do not get developed for power generation. Examples include Yellowstone Park in the United States and Orakei Korako Geyserland in New Zealand. However, geothermal resources that exhibit little surface manifestation in national parks do get developed. Examples include Hatchobaru and Otake in Japan.

Volcanoes, and hence geothermal resources, are also associated with mythical power and beliefs...

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Simulation of Easter Island

Perhaps the most revealing method of analysis of this dynamic system is through simulation. It is possible to estimate plausible values for the parameters in Eqs. (1) and (2) and simulate the evolution of Easter Island. The necessary parameters are a, b, n, r, and environmental carrying capacity K. It is also neces­sary to specify the size P(0) of the initial founding population.

Simulation of Easter Island

FIGURE 2 A flow diagram of stocks and flows.

The environmental carrying capacity and the initial forest stock are taken to be the same. Of course, the size of this stock can be normalized to any value...

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Population Growth

To describe population growth, we adopt the linear form used by Lotka and Volterra in their original predator-prey formulations. The first component is a base net fertility rate, n, that would apply in the absence of a resource stock (and would presumably be negative in our environment). In addition, there is a second term that, from our point of view, captures the Malthusian idea that net fertility rises when per capita consumption rises. This implies that propor­tional net fertility should rise when, other things equal, the resource stock is larger. The effect follows because a higher stock (for a given population) would normally give rise to higher per capita consumption. This reasoning leads to the following population growth function:

dP/dt = nP + bPS, (2)

where b is a parameter that...

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